Sunday, January 28, 2007

Civil War on its Way

The conversation that convinced me...

A civil war is coming. I’m convinced of it and I have been for some time.

This week’s events were just another predictable bump on the path of the incremental dissolution of civil life into civil strife. The path may still be long and it will be winding but it has only one terminus: a new national nightmare. Someday the army will lose neutrality and dissolve and we’ll once again be witness to a Somalia on the Mediterranean.
But enough gloomy predictions, how was I convinced?
It wasn’t a result of an article or watching some TV. It was due to a conversation I had…

(The rest may will be a little vague, with names and locations kept to a minimum to protect the participants.)

A couple of mornings after I arrived in Beirut I went to a friend’s place of business to chit-chat and have some coffee. I arrived at my friend’s and was welcomed warmly as we have known each other since I was born. In the middle of some serious catching up we were interrupted. A mustached man got out of his chauffeured car and entered. He was dressed in the Hezbollah-casual uniform: black leather jacket, button-up shirt, dark jeans and patent-leather loafers. We were introduced and I was told he was a high ranking Lebanese army officer (I’ll leave the rank vague too, but it was quite high). I sat and quietly and tried to discern what kind of relationship existed between the two as my friend doesn’t usually have any contact with the military. I soon discovered this was a marriage of convenience as the two began to barter favors in true Lebanese fashion. I also discovered my clothing-based Hezbollah diagnosis was bang-on when a deal was struck and the conversation turned to politics and friction from a rather innocuous question.
“So how’s business?” The army officer asked.
“What do you think? When are you going to send your people downtown home? Then I could make some money,” my friend replied.
The officer’s demeanor quickly went from buoyant to stern. “My people? Who taught them these things anyway? Who? Remember who introduced these habits.”
An uncomfortable silence fell over the room.
The officer went on; “This is a country ruled by consensus and you should not have gone to the street when you had a disagreement.”
I sat quietly and tried to understand how opposition to the Syrian occupation after the assassination of Rafiq Harari could be described as a simple disagreement.
My friend stepped in.
“I just want what’s best for the country.”
The officer shot back; “What’s best for the country? Who are you with? The Americans? The Israelis?”
“No, I’m not with the Israelis.”
“Are you not with the Americans? How can you deny that?” The officer insisted, he was not going to take no for an answer.
My firend relented; “OK, I’m with the Americans.”
“With Israel then.” The officer leaned back, confident in his position and continued, “We take orders from the Americans now. Rice says jump and we do. Like this thing with the airplane from Ben-Gurion…”

He was referring to a report being disseminated on al-Manar about a plane landing in Beirut on the day of Pierre Gemayel’s assassination. The report highlighted that this plane, carrying Portuguese diplomats, had previously been in Israel. The facts and the report ended there… al-Manar let its viewers fill in the rest. It didn’t matter that the plane was probably never in Israel or the fact that the Portuguese would hardly be likely candidates to transport an Israeli hit squad; people believed what was convenient and the proof was sitting across the table from me, sipping coffee and spewing diatribes. He mentioned how he thought the Israelis had a hand in all the assassinations.

I piped up. I mentioned the army raid against SSNP raid a few days previous, which netted many weapons, explosives and detonators. I was hinting that they were probably the real killers of Gemayel (I out right accused them here ).

The officer clearly understood what I was doing, “We all have our suspicions but we cannot act without evidence,” he said.
“Evidence? What the pile of dead Greek Orthodox bodies in the Metn? What about the weapons cache?” I immediately realized that my mouth might get me into trouble here.
“Every party has weapons. You want weapons? I can go into any house around here and find you weapons.” He was probably right.
“But what about the explosives?” I asked.
“Which party doesn’t have explosives? What’s the big deal? That’s the problem with you people… you look at the country through only one eye.”
I could have answered. I knew what the “big deal” was; that these explosives were meant for other Lebanese. I could’ve said that most of his positions were dependent on large flights of fancy (or flights from Tel-Aviv). But I didn’t. I bit my tongue.
“Well I guess we aren’t going to convince each other.” I said.
We agreed on that at least.
He went on to mention that my time in Lebanon should be pleasant. The opposition was going to wait until the end of the holidays before the next step. Only in Lebanon, I thought, is civil turmoil planned so civilly.
The conversation drifted off into the apolitical after that. Soon the officer’s driver returned and the army man clambered back into his car and disappeared.

His demeanor convinced me that civil war was a distinct possibility. He, and others like him, viewed this not as struggle against other Lebanese but against the Israelis. Easy explanations were dismissed in favor of far-fetched conspiracies. All opponents are tarred as friends of Israel which also allows any criticism from them to be ignored.

It became clear. When you're protecting the Arab and Muslim nation all is allowed. Hezbollah, its foreign backers and its political allies are playing for keeps. They are not going to relent until they get what they want. After the “divine victory” this summer they are confident in their abilities and capabilities. They view their goal, to become the dominant political force in Lebanon, as possible in the short-term and they plan to push hard in pursuit of that goal.
And that’s the problem. They are too confident. Too confident that they can intimidate their adversaries, too confident that they can control a volatile situation, too confident the population would accept their victory. They seem to be blind to the fact the government supporters are willing to fight for what they believe in.
Like this summer, I’m afraid that Hezbollah will realize only too late that volatile situations that were “under control” can quickly flare up into full-scale war (just like that cafeteria a few days ago).
This is not to say that the current deadlock is all Hezbollah’s fault. The government must offer some concessions so all can save face and Lebanon can exit this abyss but Hezbollah and company must be receptive to them. So far they have made ever-larger demands and refused anything less than full acquiescence, confident in their eventual victory and oblivious to reality.

Like a game of chicken played at night between two opponents wearing sunglasses, this looks headed for a bad outcome.

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